BBC: 'Supersized' El Niño Raises Global Drought and Flood Risks Into 2027

A phenomenon accelerating faster than expected

BBC News reported on 3 September 2026 that El Niño is being "supersized before our eyes," in the words of UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The World Meteorological Organization's latest data suggest the event could be the strongest for more than 70 years and last until at least February 2027.

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon linked to a shift in Pacific wind patterns that allows warm water to spread eastwards and release heat into the atmosphere. The current episode is unfolding on top of long-term human-caused warming, which scientists say may make impacts more intense. Monthly sea surface temperatures could approach 4°C above average, forecasts suggest — a threshold that would surpass markers set during previous major events.

The BBC spoke with governments and scientists about measures being taken globally to reduce the risk of deaths, displacement and environmental damage. Early warning systems have been strengthened and pre-emptive medical assistance deployed, but the strength of this particular event has raised serious concerns, particularly for vulnerable groups.

Drought, wildfires and disrupted trade

While impacts are likely to be felt well into 2027, WMO expects significant changes in rainfall patterns over the next few months. Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across large areas of Southeast Asia, Central America and northern parts of South America, increasing the risk of droughts and wildfires.

Indonesia is racing to contain wildfires that have burned more than 107,000 hectares of land nationwide this dry season. Like some other parts of Southeast Asia, it is facing a longer fire season this year. Reduced rainfall also disrupts agricultural supply chains and inland shipping routes that depend on predictable monsoon timing.

China, thousands of miles from the Pacific heart of El Niño, is expecting seven typhoons to make landfall this year alone — a tally its experts have linked to the effects of a super El Niño. The BBC's reporting underscores how teleconnected the phenomenon is: a warm Pacific reshapes hazard profiles far from the ocean basin itself.

Regions facing the opposite hazard

Not every affected area dries out. Wetter-than-average weather is expected in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil and the southern United States, raising the chances of flooding. Peru, Ecuador and parts of Brazil have previously experienced increased rainfall during strong El Niño events, resulting in flash flooding and landslides, particularly in urban centres where water drains less effectively.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said disruption and devastation from droughts and floods is already visible, and that impacts are expected to increase as El Niño intensifies. The divergence between regional outcomes is a defining feature of the phenomenon and complicates a single global preparedness message.

The policy response

Guterres warned that the world has entered a "danger zone of extreme weather" as El Niño's impacts begin to be felt globally. The BBC's coverage placed equal weight on the scientific forecast and the uneven capacity of countries to respond — noting that early action is under way but that the scale of the event has tested existing systems.

Some scientists believe climate change could be making El Niño events stronger, though that link is not yet certain. What is clear from the September data is that the current episode arrives in an atmosphere already elevated by decades of greenhouse-gas forcing, leaving less margin before records fall.