WMO Warns El Niño Will Intensify Through February 2027, Raising Global Extreme Weather Risk

A very strong event with months still to run

On 3 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization released its El Niño/La Niña Update, confirming that the current episode is firmly established across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres indicate the event will strengthen further in the coming months, reaching very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.

The update marks one of the most confident outlooks the agency has ever issued. Forecasters expect El Niño to persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027, with exceptionally warm tropical Pacific Ocean conditions supporting further intensification. ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña are not anticipated during the outlook period.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon, whose name means "boy child" in Spanish, "has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world." Disruption from droughts and floods is already visible, she added, and impacts are expected to increase as the event intensifies.

What the forecasts show for temperature and rainfall

For September through November 2026, WMO multi-model forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas. Rainfall patterns show what forecasters describe as a pronounced and classic atmospheric response to a strong Pacific El Niño, with significant shifts in where rain falls and where it does not.

A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of substantial changes in temperature and rainfall patterns in many parts of the world. WMO cautions, however, that the strength of an El Niño event does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in any single region. Local geography, seasonal timing and interaction with other climate drivers all shape what communities actually experience.

Confidence in the outlook is high. Strong and mutually reinforcing oceanic and atmospheric signals, together with close agreement among seasonal prediction systems, indicate that El Niño will persist at least into early 2027.

Preparedness and the UN response

WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates are described by the agency as the world's most authoritative source of information for governments and decision-makers. They are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, climate prediction centres and experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services around the world.

In response to the forecast, WMO is working with the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Food and Agriculture Organization, alongside UN Country Teams, to manage risks associated with the 2026–2027 episode. The WMO Coordination Mechanism is providing tailored expertise to the humanitarian sector.

Reporting from Al Jazeera on 3 September noted that if the current trajectory continues, the event may be stronger than anything recorded since systematic monitoring began four decades ago. Saulo told reporters in Geneva that the world was facing an exceptional El Niño that demands exceptional preparation, with seasonal forecasts providing a vital window of opportunity.

Why the timing matters for 2027

El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026, but its knock-on impacts for global temperatures and weather patterns are expected to continue well into 2027. WMO climate prediction services have noted that global average temperatures typically receive a temporary boost following a strong El Niño, raising the prospect that 2027 could challenge existing heat records.

Governments are being urged to strengthen preparedness and early-warning systems so communities can act before severe impacts occur. Recommended measures include shifting towards more drought-resistant crops and strengthening contingency planning for agriculture, public health, energy systems and water resources.